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After some booking profits in precious metals, there was a rally in the last week and gold prices rose by Rs. 800 to touch the level of Rs. 53900 per 10 grams, which is a three-month high. Silver also saw a gain of Rs 2400 and reached the level of Rs 65600 per kg. Gold prices have come close to their highest level of 56000 by breaking the limited range running for nine months. According to the World Gold Council, major central banks have bought large amounts of gold to avoid rising inflation. The demand for gold has increased by 28% this year, which reached 1181 tons by September 2022. Major gold purchases this year include the central banks of Turkey, Uzbekistan, India, and Qatar. The rupee has depreciated by about 10 percent against the dollar in 2022 due to a rise in interest rates, for which the RBI has bought gold to hedge. Gold prices have remained firm on the back of RBI buying this year apart from demand from jewelers in India.

In his statement given by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Thursday, he has softened his stance on monetary policy. He has spoken of a lower rate cut in the upcoming Fed meeting to see the effect of the interest rate hikes on the economy in the coming year. However, the Fed chair cautioned that interest peak could be higher than expected earlier if inflation does not ease further.

What economic data indicates further?

The previous month's released retail sales numbers were up, while the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index is trading above its target, making inflation less likely to ease. The decrease in unemployment claims and jolts job opening data released from the US is better than usual, but the decline in the US dollar index continues to support the price of precious metals. The dollar index slipped below the 105 level while the US benchmark Treasury yield declined to 3.6 percent.

Technical Analysis

The rally in precious metals is likely to continue this week. Gold has support at 52000 and resistance at 56000. Silver has support at 62000 and resistance at 68000.

कीमती धातुओं में मुनाफा वसूली के बाद पिछले सप्ताह तेज़ी लोट आई और सोने के भाव 800 रुपये तेज़ हो कर 53900 रुपए प्रति दस ग्राम के स्तरों को छू गए , जो तीन महीने का उच्च स्तर है। चांदी की कीमतों में भी 2400 रुपए की तेज़ी देखि गई और भाव 65600 रुपए प्रति किलो के स्तरों तक पहुंच गए। सोने के भाव नौ महीने के सीमित दायरे को तोड़ कर अपने उच्चतम स्तर 56000 के करीब पहुंच गए है। वर्ल्ड गोल्ड कौसिंल के मुताबिक प्रमुख केंद्रीय बैंक द्वारा बढ़ती हुई मुद्रास्फीति से बचने के लिए सोने की बड़ी मात्रा में खरीद की है। सोने की मांग में इस साल 28 प्रतिशत की बढ़ोतरी हुई जो सितम्बर 2022 तक 1181 टन पहुंच चुकि है। इस साल प्रमुख रूप से सोने की खरीद में तुर्की, उज्बेकिस्तान, भारत और क़तर की केंद्रीय बैंक शामिल है। ब्याज दरों में बढ़ोतरी के कारण 2022 में रुपया, डॉलर की तुलना में लगभग 10 प्रतिशत अवमूल्य हुआ है जिसकी हेजिंग के लिए आरबीआई द्वारा सोने की खरीद की गई है। भारत में ज्वेलर्स की मांग के अतिरिक्त इस साल आरबीआई की खरीद के रहते, सोने की कीमतों में मजबूती बनी हुई है।

गुरुवार को फेड चेयरमैन जेरोम पॉवेल द्वारा दिए गए अपने बयान में मुद्रास्फीति पर अपना रुख नरम कर लिया है औरआने वाली फेड बैठक में ब्याज दरों में कम कटौती की बात कही है क्योकि अब तक हुई ब्याज दर बढ़ोतरी का आने वाले साल में अर्थव्यवस्था पर क्या असर रहेगा, इसके परिणाम पर फेड की नज़रे रहेंगी। हालांकि, फेड चेयर ने आगाह किया की आगे मुद्रास्फीति कम नहीं हुई तो अनुमान से अधिक ब्याज दर बढ़ोतरी होगी।

पिछले रिटेल सेल्स केआकड़ो में बढ़ोतरी रही जबकि पर्सनेल कंसम्पशन एक्सपेंडिचर प्राइस इंडेक्स अपने टारगेट से ऊपर चल रहा है जिससे मुद्रास्फीति में कमी की सम्भावना कम है। अमेरिका से जारी बेरोज़गारी के दावे में कमी और जोल्ट्स जॉब ओपनिंग के आंकड़े अमुमान से बेहतर दर्ज किये गए है, लेकिन अमेरिकी डॉलर इंडेक्स में गिरावट, कीमती धातुओं के भाव को लगातार सपोर्ट कर रही है। डॉलर इंडेक्स 105 के स्तरों के नीचे फिसल गया है जबकि अमेरिकी बेंचमार्क ट्रेज़री यील्ड घट कर 3.6 प्रतिशत हो गई है।

तकनीकी विश्लेषण

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं में तेज़ी जारी रहने की सम्भावना है। सोने की कीमतों में 52000 रुपये पर सपोर्ट है और 56000 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध है। चांदी में 62000 रुपये पर सपोर्ट और 68000 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध है।

Financial Sector plays a pivotal role in bringing awareness and funding the ever increasing issues of sustainability.

Sustainability Finance takes into account the impact of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors along with the traditional financial returns. Environmental factors consider the mitigation of climate related issues and use of resources that are sustainable. Social factors consider the human rights, inclusion of diversity, consumer protections as well as animal rights. Governance factors consider the employee related and compliance related issues in both public and private sectors. This direction to consider the impact of ESG while making investment decisions is becoming a strong reality.

After the shock that the world went through by COVID-19 pandemic, the words ESG and Sustainability are everywhere. People have realized that developing a green and sustainable society along with making a viable economic and financial model that can cope with the limits of this planet has become the key to our survival. The awareness and focus of companies to follow strong ESG criteria has increased in the recent years to a large extent.

COVID-19 has changed the rules of the game and pushed many investors to reassess their short and long term portfolio strategies and focus more on companies with better sustainability plan making corporate responsibility a growing expectation of investors.

The old myth around ESG that it effects the asset management and returns of a company can’t be further away from reality. There is a growing evidence for increase of sustainable financial products and a link between ESG factors and financial performance of a company. The millennial generation is pushing companies to focus on climate change as they want to invest in a greener future. They are also willing to veto such organizations that do not meet their demand for sustainability. Many funds are also now considering whether business governance practices by promoting transparency, business ethics and interest of stakeholders is a key part of a company’s strategy or not.

This rapid rise in investment decisions after considering the sustainability practices has led to a demand for this niche expertise in the field of finance. Very few people currently have the expertise and relevant ESG experience. Investment banks acknowledging this rarity of talent and the growing demand for such niche investment products are willing to pay a premium for these roles. Many top B schools have also started offering master’s degree in sustainability, thus pushing sustainability finance more towards reality.

Blackrock has proposed to reach “net zero” by 2050, which will lead to a drastic reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. For a global leading investment manager to pursue such goals will play a significant role ahead. This can lead to an unprecedented opportunity for sustainable finance and maybe just truly align the world with the Paris Agreement.

This shift from large investment managers to young millennial population to drive companies and their investment decisions towards sustainability will go a long way to save our world. Every industry will now have to follow sustainable business practices to sustain in the long run and make the society cleaner, greener and socially stable.

डॉलर में छोटी अवधि की गिरावट के कारण कीमती धातुओं के भाव में मजबूती बनी हुई हालांकि पिछले सप्ताह में फेड बैठक के मिनट्स जारी हुए और अमेरिकी बाज़ारो में थैंक्सगिविंग डे के चलते अवकाश रहा जिससे कीमती धातुओं के भाव सीमित दायरे में बने रहे और सोने में मुनाफा वसूली देखि गई। डॉलर, जो सोने के विपरीत दिशा में चलता है, 22 साल की उच्च स्तरों से 8 प्रतिशत टूट चुका है। फेड द्वारा अपनी बैठक के मिनट्स में संकेत दिए है की लगातार हो रही ब्याज दर वृद्धि की गति को कम किया जायेगा जिससे विश्व में उभरती अर्थव्यवस्था को राहत मिलेगी। फेड के मौद्रिक निति पर नरमी से अमेरिकी बेंचमार्क ट्रेज़री यील्ड फिसल कर 3.68 प्रतिशत के स्तरों पर पहुंच गई जिससे डॉलर फिसल गया और कीमती धातुओं में तेज़ी रही।

आने वाले महीनों में कीमती धातुओं की मांग अच्छी रहने के आसार बने हुए है क्योकि डॉलर के 22 साल की उचाई से पीछे हट गया है और वैश्विक आर्थिक स्थिति बिगड़ी हुई है। पिछले सप्ताह अमेरिका और जापान जैसी बड़ी अर्थव्यवस्था के पर्चेसिंग मैनेजर इंडेक्स (पीएमआई) में कमजोरी के साथ चीन में बढ़ता कोविड -19 का संक्रमण सेफ हैवन मांग बढ़ा रहा है। भारत में वेडिंग सीजन के कारण सोने की मांग मजबूत बनी हुई। वर्ल्ड गोल्ड काउंसिल के आंकड़ों के मुताबिक, सितंबर तिमाही में केंद्रीय बैंकों ने 400 मीट्रिक टन सोना खरीदा है, जो सामान्य तौर पर साल भर की खरीद के बराबर है। केंद्रीय बैंको द्वारा सोने की खरीद में बढ़ोतरी कीमती धातुओं के भाव में मजबूती के संकेत देता है।

आर्थिक आंकड़े

इस सप्ताह फेड प्रमुख पॉवेल की अर्थव्यवस्था और श्रम बाजार पर स्पीच, अमेरिकी पैरोल के आंकड़े, अमेरिका, चीन और जापान के मैन्युफैक्चरिंग पीएमआई के आंकड़े और ओपेक देशो की बैठक कीमती धातुओं के लिए महत्वपूर्ण रहेंगे।

तकनीकी विश्लेषण

इस सप्ताह कीमती धातुओं में दिसंबर वायदा की कटान रहने से कीमते सीमित दायरे में रह सकती है। फरवरी वायदा सोने की कीमतों में 52300 रुपये पर सपोर्ट है और 53700 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध है। मार्च वायदा चांदी में 61500 रुपये पर सपोर्ट और 64500 रुपये पर प्रतिरोध है।

Due to concerns over Covid-19 in China slowing down the expansion of the world economy, precious metal prices stayed stable at their current levels. Since a few days ago, the US benchmark Treasury yield and the dollar, which measure a basket of six major currencies, have been in a corrective phase. The yields on US 10-year bonds have fallen below 3.7%. Members of the US Federal Reserve hinted at a less aggressive monetary policy for a future meeting in order to encourage the rising economies that drive up the price of gold. The interest rate in the USA is currently 4%, compared to a year ago when it was almost nil. While the inflation rate has decreased to 7.7% from the 40-year high of 9.1%, a negligible decrease, the interest rate is running at higher levels as a result of the current economic condition, heightening the concern of a recession.

On the other hand, China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of industrial metals is having difficulties as a result of the steps taken to reduce Covid-19 instances. Base metals and crude oil prices are being pressured by China's dampened demand, while the Russia-Ukraine war has caused a supply shortage of oil and gas in Europe. The leading central banks' stimulus programs during the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war caused inflation to increase, reaching levels not seen in 42 years. The US dollar index has already lost 8% of its 22-year peak. However, emerging market currencies like those of India are strengthening. While the prices of crude oil and industrial metals may continue to decline owing to the current circumstances, the outlook for precious metals is favorable for the upcoming six months.

Technical Analysis

Technically, gold prices are lingering over 52000 levels; if they maintain these levels, a strong uptrend toward 58000 levels may be witnessed in the upcoming months. Important support for gold is at 50000, while resistance is at 56000. Support for silver is at 58000, while resistance is at 66000.

Infrastructure Stocks to Focus on the Ahead of the Budget

The Modi government will announce its last full budget before the 2024 general elections. The path toward boosting the manufacturing sector outlined in the last budget is likely to continue in the upcoming budget. Therefore, the central government’s priority remains to foster the nascent investment cycle through a continued increase in public capital outlays and infrastructural spending. Therefore, capital goods and infrastructure will be in focus.

KNR Construction and PNC Infrastructure remain institutional favorites for a long period. And they have delivered a good return even in a tough time for the industry. PNC Infratech and KNR Construction remain two of our preferred picks in the EPC space given their robust order books, healthy return ratios, and lean balance sheets. The road sector is gaining significant traction on account of the central government's proactive push for infrastructure development, and incumbents like KNR Construction and PNC Infra are likely to be the key beneficiaries of the structural growth opportunities available in the sector with a robust order book and better execution process.

Road, highway, bridge, and flyover building on an EPC, BOT, and Hybrid Annuity Model (HAM) basis are among the services provided by the KNR. Additionally, it works on irrigation projects, agriculture projects, and managing urban water infrastructure.  Some of the customers of the Co include the National Highways Authority of India (NHAI), Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH), Government of Telangana, Karnataka State Highway Improvement Project (KSHIP), Madhya Pradesh Road Development Corporation Ltd (MPRDCL), etc.  As per our research analysis as of September 30, KNR had an order book of Rs 8,042 crore, implying a revenue visibility of more than 2–3 years. In FY23 and FY24, management expects EBITDA margins to be in the 18–19% range. Over the years, KNR Construction and PNC Infra have emerged as two of the leading EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) players in the road sector.

PNC Infratech Limited provides infrastructure implementation solutions that include engineering, procurement, and construction ("EPC") services on a fixed-sum turnkey basis as well as on an item rate basis. It also executes and implements projects on a "Design-Build- Finance-Operate-Transfer" ("DBFOT"), Operate-Maintain-Transfer ("OMT") , Hybrid Annuity Mode (HAM), and other PPP formats. In the case of BOT and HAM, the company bid as a sponsor either alone or in a joint venture with other ventures and once the project is awarded then it is executed by incorporating a special-purpose vehicle. PNC Infratech has established itself as a capable executor in the segments of airport runways, water infrastructure, and roadways. Additionally, PNC is able to complete projects on schedule thanks to its strong execution ability, ownership of contemporary equipment, and internal teams. PNC’s order book at the end of Q2 FY23 was at Rs 19,261 crore. The company provides services to clients like NHAI, HSRDC, AAI, MSRDC, Rites, UPPCL, etc.

If we talk about valuations, then there is comfort in PNC Infratech, which is trading at a PE of 10, which is below its five-year average, while KNR is trading at a PE of 19, which is above its five-year average. Know more about the trading opportunity available to you. We are likely to see a rally in this sector as the infrastructure sector did not participate in the ongoing rally in domestic economy-facing stocks despite the sector's positive outlook.