Algorithmic trading (algo trading) has revolutionized the financial markets by automating the execution of trades based on pre-defined criteria. But is algo trading good to do?
For many people, algo trading offers great advantages. Algorithms can process a lot of data at a very fast speed and make trades at a very low cost. This makes trading much more efficient and profitable. Algorithms can react faster than humans to market fluctuations, allowing traders to take advantage of opportunities that may otherwise not be available. By not having human emotions taking part, there is less emotional risk in trading.
What is Algorithmic Trading?
Algorithmic trading is all about using computer algorithms to take control of the trading process. These smart algorithms separate through market data, spot trading opportunities, and place orders for the trader. They can execute trades at lightning speed and in volumes that far surpass what any human could manage, all while keeping emotions out of the equation—something that often clouds human judgment.
At its core, algorithmic trading relies on predefined rules, like price, volume, or time, to determine the optimal moments to buy or sell a security. These rules can range from straightforward to incredibly intricate, weaving in various market factors, technical indicators, and statistical models.
The Rise of Algo Trading
The growth of algo trading has been driven by leaps in technology. With high-speed internet, enhanced data analysis tools, and superior computational power, it’s become much easier to create, backtest, and roll out complex trading strategies. These tech advancements, along with the increased access to financial data, have opened the doors for not just institutional traders but also retail traders to dive into algo trading.
Nowadays, algo trading makes up a heavy chunk of the daily trading volume in financial markets. For instance, in the U.S. stock market, it’s estimated that over 60% of trades are executed using algorithms. This trend underscores the expanding influence of automation in shaping the global financial landscape.
Advantages of Algo Trading
1. Speed and Efficiency
One of the standout perks of algorithmic trading is its speed. Algorithms can analyze massive amounts of market data in real-time and execute trades in the blink of an eye. On the flip side, human traders are limited by their cognitive abilities and can’t react nearly as fast. This speed advantage lets algorithms capitalize on even the tiniest price discrepancies, raking in profits that would be tough to match with manual trading.
2. Elimination of Emotional Bias
Human traders often let their emotions, like fear or greed, cloud their judgment, which can lead to some pretty poor investment decisions. On the other hand, algorithmic trading takes that emotional bias out of the equation. Since algorithms stick to strict, predefined rules, they make trades without getting caught up in the fear of losing money or the temptation to chase after big gains. This results in a more disciplined and consistent approach to trading.
3. Backtesting and Optimization
Algo trading systems can be backtested using historical market data, which is a fantastic way for traders to test their strategies without any risk before putting real money on the line. Backtesting helps pinpoint which strategies work best in various market conditions. Plus, algorithms can be fine-tuned and adjusted continuously to keep up with the ever-changing market landscape.
4. Diversification
With algo trading, traders can easily diversify their strategies by managing multiple trades at the same time. Algorithms allow them to invest in a range of markets and securities all at once, which helps spread the risk across different assets. This diversification is key to lowering the overall risk of a trading strategy.
5. Reduced Transaction Costs
Automated systems make trading more efficient, which in turn cuts down on transaction costs. Algorithms can execute trades faster and at lower costs than humans can, especially when you factor in things like bid-ask spreads, slippage, and commissions. For high-frequency traders, those small savings can really add up to significant profits over time.
6. Access to Complex Strategies
Algo trading opens the door to executing complex strategies that would be tough for humans to handle manually. For instance, strategies like statistical arbitrage, market making, or pairs trading require quick analysis of huge amounts of data and the ability to make multiple trades simultaneously. These strategies can be effectively carried out through algorithmic trading systems.
Algo trading can be a smart move, but it really depends on what the trader is aiming for, their resources, and their level of expertise. For institutional investors who have access to cutting-edge technology and substantial capital, algorithmic trading can be an incredibly effective way to boost efficiency and profits. On the flip side, retail traders need to think carefully about the costs, complexities, and risks that come with algorithmic trading.
In short, algorithmic trading isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach. Traders must grasp the technology, recognize the potential risks, and thoughtfully evaluate whether the advantages outweigh the hurdles. By doing this, they can make well-informed choices about incorporating algorithmic trading into their investment strategies.
Price Patterns are shapes or formations on charts that can be categorized and used to predict future price movements.
These patterns have been seen repeatedly across different charts and times, proving their reliability.
Duration: Price patterns can last from a few days to several months or even years. Longer patterns usually lead to more significant price moves.
Price Targets: The targets from these patterns estimate how far the price might move, but they are approximate.
Interpretation: Analysing patterns involves both skill and flexibility. Patterns may not match the textbook description perfectly but can still be valid.
Considerations: Always look at the price behaviour and the time it takes for the pattern to form to get a complete picture.
Classification of Patterns
Reversal patterns are important signals in trading that suggest a current trend (whether it's going up or down) might soon change direction. They usually appear after a long period of a particular trend. These patterns help traders predict when a trend might be ending and a new one might start.
Common examples of reversal patterns include:
Head & Shoulders
Double Top/Double Bottom
Triple Top/Triple Bottom
Broadening Formations
Rounding Bottom/Rounding Top or Cup & Handle Pattern
Continuation patterns are signals in trading that suggest a brief pause in the current trend, but the trend is likely to continue in the same direction after the pause. In other words, the trend takes a short break and then keeps going.
Common examples of continuation patterns include:
Flags
Pennants
Triangles: Ascending Triangle/Descending Triangle
Rectangles:
Both Continuous and Reversal Patterns
Rising/Falling Wedges
In this blog, we will have a brief look at how these patterns look.
Double Top : A Double Top is a bearish reversal pattern that signals a potential end to an uptrend. It forms when the price creates two high points (highs) at nearly the same level, separated by a period of time.
Prior Trend: There must be a strong upward trend.
First High: The price reaches a high point and then pulls back slightly.
Second High: The price rises again to a similar level as the first high but on lower trading volume.
Pattern Completion: The pattern is completed when the price drops below the lowest point between the two highs, confirming a trend reversal. This drop should happen with an increase in trading volume.
Tip: One will find double top developing often in stocks but one must look at the prior trend and volume to rely on the formation.
Double Bottom
A Double Bottom pattern is a bullish reversal pattern signalling a potential end to a downtrend.
Prior Trend: There must be a strong downward trend
First Low: The price hits a low point (low) and then starts to rise.
High: After the first low, the price climbs and forms a high point (high), which may look slightly rounded.
Second Low: The price drops again, creating a second low at a similar level to the first, but with lower trading volume.
Pattern Completion: The pattern is completed when the price rises above the highest point between the two lows, indicating a reversal of the downtrend. This breakout should occur with increased trading volume.
Triple Top
A Triple Top is a bearish reversal pattern that indicates the potential end of an uptrend. It features three distinct high points at roughly the same price level. Here’s a simplified explanation:
Prior Trend: There must be a strong upward trend before the Triple Top forms.
Three Highs: The price reaches three highs, each at a similar level, and these highs are well-spaced, marking turning points where the price starts to drop after each high.
Volume: During the formation of the Triple Top, trading volume usually decreases, with the highest volume at the first high and lower volume on the following highs. However, when the price finally breaks below the support level (the lowest point between the highs), volume should increase, confirming the pattern.
Tip: Pattern is complete when the both lows have been broken on heavier volume.
Triple Bottom
A Triple Bottom is a bullish reversal pattern that signals the potential end of a downtrend. It features three distinct low points at roughly the same price level.
Prior Trend: There must be a strong downward trend before the Triple Bottom forms.
Three Lows: The price hits three low points, each at a similar level, and these lows are well-spaced, marking turning points where the price starts to rise after each low.
Volume: During the formation of the Triple Bottom, trading volume usually decreases, with the highest volume at the first low and lower volume on the following lows. However, when the price finally breaks above the resistance level (the highest point between the lows), volume should increase, confirming the pattern.
Head & Shoulders
Prior Trend: For a Head & Shoulders pattern to be a reversal signal, there must be a clear uptrend before it forms. Without this uptrend, the pattern can't signal a reversal.
Left Shoulder: During an uptrend, the price hits a high point (left shoulder) and then drops a bit. This drop usually stays above the trend line, so the uptrend continues.
Head: After the drop from the left shoulder, the price rises again, reaching a new high (the head). After this high, the price drops again, creating a low point that helps form the neckline.
Right Shoulder: From the low of the head, the price rises again but doesn’t reach the height of the head. This high (right shoulder) is usually around the same level as the left shoulder. The final decline should break the neckline, completing the pattern.
Inverse Head and Shoulders
The Inverse Head and Shoulders, signals a potential change from a downtrend to an uptrend. Here’s how it forms:
Prior Trend: There must be a clear downtrend before this pattern can signal a reversal. Without a downtrend, the pattern doesn’t work.
Left Shoulder: During the downtrend, the price drops to a low point (left shoulder) and then starts to rise.
Head: After the rise from the left shoulder, the price drops again to a lower point (the head), then rises again, creating a high point that helps form the neckline.
Right Shoulder: The price drops from the high of the head to form another low (right shoulder). This low should be higher than the head and usually around the same level as the left shoulder. The final rise should break above the neckline, completing the pattern.
When the price breaks above the neckline, it suggests the downtrend may be ending, and the price could start rising.
Broadening Formations
Broadening Formations are patterns where the price creates an expanding triangle. Unlike regular triangles, where the trend lines come together, broadening formations have trend lines that spread out, making the shape of an expanding triangle.
In simple terms, as the price moves, the highs and lows get further apart, creating a pattern that looks like an expanding triangle.
Broadening Bottoms
A Broadening bottom looks like a megaphone and appears during a downtrend. It features:
Higher Highs and Lower Lows: The price makes progressively higher highs and lower lows, creating a wide, expanding shape over time.
This pattern is a bullish reversal signal, meaning that after it forms, the price trend is likely to shift from down to up.
Volume: Trading volume is often uneven but tends to rise when the price goes up and fall when the price goes down.
Broadening Wedges Ascending
A Broadening Wedges Ascending is a bearish reversal pattern where:
Trend Lines: Two trend lines slope upwards and get wider apart over time.
Volume: Trading volume usually increases as the pattern develops.
This pattern indicates that the current uptrend might be ending and a downtrend could begin
Broadening Wedges Descending
A Broadening Wedges Descending is a bullish reversal pattern where:
Trend Lines: Two trend lines slope downwards and get wider apart over time.
Volume: Trading volume typically increases as the pattern forms.
This pattern suggests that the downtrend might be ending and a new uptrend could start.
RISING WEDGE
A Rising Wedge is a bearish pattern that forms when prices start wide at the bottom and gradually narrow as they move higher. This pattern slopes upward and signals a potential drop in prices. Here's a simple breakdown:
Bearish Bias: A rising wedge generally indicates that prices are likely to fall, even though the pattern slopes upward.
Continuation Pattern: If the wedge forms during a downtrend, it suggests the price might continue to fall after a brief upward movement.
Reversal Pattern: If the wedge forms during an uptrend, it signals that the upward trend may be ending, and a downward trend could begin.
Regardless of whether it's a continuation or a reversal, a rising wedge usually predicts a drop in prices.
Falling Wedge Pattern
A falling wedge is a chart pattern that looks like a downward-sloping cone. It starts wide at the top and gets narrower as the price moves lower.
Bullish Signal: It’s considered a bullish pattern, meaning it suggests the price might go up after the pattern forms.
Continuation Pattern: If the price was going up before the falling wedge, it means the wedge is just a pause, and the uptrend is likely to continue after the pattern completes.
Reversal Pattern: If the price was going down before the falling wedge, it indicates that the downtrend might end, and the price could start going up.
Overall, whether it’s a continuation or a reversal, a falling wedge generally suggests that prices are likely to rise after the pattern finishes.
Rounding Top
The price trend slowly curves downward over time, creating a rounded shape.
Bullish Signal: This pattern is known as a bullish consolidation pattern, which means it suggests that after this gradual downward curve, the price is likely to start moving up
Rounding Bottom
A rounding bottom pattern is a bullish consolidation pattern where the price trend gradually curves upward over time, resembling the shape of a cup. This pattern suggests that the market is slowly gaining strength and is likely to continue rising after the consolidation period.
FLAGS & PENNANTS
Flags and Pennants are short-term continuation patterns that show a brief pause in a strong price move before the trend continues in the same direction. These patterns appear after a sharp rise or fall in price with high trading volume.
Flags look like small rectangles that slope against the trend. This pattern looks like a small rectangle that slopes against the main trend. Volume usually decreases during the formation, then picks up again when the price breaks out of the flag.
Pennants have a triangular shape. This pattern looks like a small triangle with converging trend lines and resembles a short symmetrical triangle. Like flags, volume typically decreases during the pattern and increases when the price breaks out.
Both patterns indicate a short break before the price resumes its previous direction, whether up or down.
Rectangle
A Rectangle is a continuation pattern that forms when the price moves within a set range during a break in the trend. It looks like a rectangle because the price has two highs and two lows that create parallel lines at the top and bottom.
Highs and Lows: The price hits similar high points and low points, creating a trading range.
Other Names: Rectangles are also called trading ranges, consolidation zones, or congestion areas.
This pattern shows that the price is pausing and is likely to continue in the same direction once it breaks out of the range.
Rectangle Top
Bullish Rectangle Pattern: This is a bullish reversal pattern where the price also moves within a horizontal range, with two horizontal trend lines. When the price breaks above this range, it usually indicates an upward move.
Rectangle Bottom
Bearish Rectangle Pattern: This is a bearish reversal pattern where the price moves within a horizontal range, forming two horizontal trend lines. When the price breaks below this range, it often signals a downward move.
Symmetrical Triangle
A Symmetrical Triangle pattern forms when two trend lines come together and create a triangle shape.
Apex: The point (intersection) where the two trend lines meet.
As the triangle forms, trading volume usually decreases. The pattern indicates that the price could break out in either direction when it reaches the apex.
Ascending Triangle
An Ascending Triangle is a bullish pattern that generally forms during an uptrend. It features:
Horizontal Top Line: A flat line at the top, showing consistent resistance.
Rising Bottom Line: An upward-sloping line connecting higher lows.
This pattern often signals that the price will keep rising after the triangle forms. It can also appear at the end of a downtrend as a reversal pattern, but it's usually a continuation pattern that shows the price is likely to keep going up.
A Descending Triangle is a bearish pattern that usually forms during a downtrend. It has:
Horizontal Bottom Line: A flat line at the bottom, showing consistent support.
Downward-Sloping Top Line: A line sloping downwards, connecting lower highs.
This pattern often signals that the price will continue to fall after the triangle forms. It can also appear at the end of an uptrend as a reversal pattern, but it typically indicates the price is likely to keep going down.
Conclusion
Price patterns on charts, whether reversal or continuation, play a vital role in predicting future price movements in the market. Reversal patterns like Double Top, Double Bottom, and Head & Shoulders signal changes in the direction of the current trend, while continuation patterns like Flags, Pennants, and Triangles indicate a brief pause before the trend resumes. Understanding these patterns helps traders make informed decisions about when to enter or exit trades, maximizing potential profits. By analyzing the shape and volume accompanying these patterns, traders can gain insights into market sentiment and anticipate price shifts.
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Swastika has reported stellar growth in Q1FY25, with significant improvements in all key financial metrics compared to the same period last year. Here are the highlights:
Key Highlights:
Net Profit: ₹6.27 crore, up from ₹1.72 crore in Q1FY24
Revenue: ₹38.52 crore, a strong increase from ₹22.08 crore
EBITA: ₹10.63 crore, a significant rise from ₹3.63 crore
This impressive performance underscores Swastika's strategic initiatives and strong market position. As we continue to innovate and expand, we remain committed to delivering value to our stakeholders.
Conclusion-
Swastika's Q1FY25 results reflect impressive growth, with substantial increases in net profit, revenue, and EBITA compared to Q1FY24. This performance highlights the effectiveness of the company's strategic initiatives and its strong position in the market. As Swastika continues to innovate and expand, it remains focused on delivering long-term value to its stakeholders, positioning itself for sustained success.
Disclaimer: Investment in the securities market is subject to market risks. Please read all related documents carefully before investing.
Note: The net profit has decreased significantly by ₹2,195 crore compared to Q4 FY24 and is below the estimated profit.
Revenue:
Q1 FY25: ₹1.93 lakh crore
Q4 FY24: ₹1.93 lakh crore
Estimate: ₹2.07 lakh crore
Note: Revenue remains consistent with Q4 FY24 but is below the estimated revenue.
EBITA:
Q1 FY25: ₹8,636 crore
Q4 FY24: ₹10,435 crore
Estimate: ₹9,551 crore
Note: EBITA has decreased by ₹1,799 crore compared to Q4 FY24 and is also below the estimated EBITA.
EBITDA Margin:
Q1 FY25: 4.5%
Q4 FY24: 5.3%
Estimate: 4.7%
Note: The EBITDA margin has declined by 0.8% from Q4 FY24 and is slightly below the estimated margin
Conclusion-
The company’s Q1 FY25 results show a significant decline in net profit, EBITA, and EBITDA margin compared to Q4 FY24, with figures falling below estimates. Although revenue remained consistent with Q4 FY24, it was still lower than the expected amount. The decrease in profitability and margins suggests challenges during the quarter, indicating that the company needs to address these issues to improve its financial performance moving forward.
Bajaj has released its financial results for the first quarter of FY25:
Key Highlights-
Net Profit:
Current Net Profit: ₹1,988 crore
Previous Quarter (Q1 FY24): ₹1,665 crore
Estimated: ₹1,896 crore
Revenue:
Current Revenue: ₹11,928 crore
Previous Quarter (Q1 FY24): ₹10,304 crore
Estimated: ₹11,700 crore
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes):
Current EBIT: ₹2,035 crore
Previous Quarter (Q1 FY24): ₹1,954 crore
Estimated: ₹2,360 crore
EBITDA Margin:
Current EBITDA Margin: 20.25%
Previous Quarter (Q1 FY24): 19%
Estimated: 20%
Conclusion-
Bajaj's financial performance for Q1 FY25 shows strong growth compared to the previous quarter, with net profit and revenue both exceeding estimates. The company’s EBIT also showed improvement, though slightly below expectations. The EBITDA margin increased to 20.25%, reflecting operational efficiency. Overall, Bajaj’s results demonstrate solid performance and a positive trend in its financial health, though there is room for improvement in EBIT.
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Infosys has released its financial results for the first quarter of FY25.
Key Highlights-
Net Profit:
Current Quarter:₹6,368 crore
Previous Quarter (Q4 FY24): ₹7,975 crore
Estimated: ₹6,198 crore
Revenue:
Current Quarter:₹39,315 crore
Previous Quarter (Q4 FY24): ₹37,923 crore
Estimated: ₹38,905 crore
EBIT (Earnings Before Interest and Taxes):
Current Quarter: ₹8,288 crore
Previous Quarter (Q4 FY24): ₹7,621 crore
Estimated: ₹8,040 crore
EBITDA Margin:
Current Quarter: 21.1%
Previous Quarter (Q4 FY24): 20.1%
Estimated: 20.7%
Conclusion-
Infosys' Q1 FY25 results show a mixed performance. While revenue and EBIT exceeded estimates, net profit fell short of expectations and declined compared to the previous quarter. The EBITDA margin improved to 21.1%, surpassing both the previous quarter and the estimated margin, indicating stronger operational efficiency. Despite the drop in net profit, the company’s overall performance reflects positive growth in key areas, positioning it well for the upcoming quarters.
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