India Outpaced the UK to become the 5th largest economy
India was the eleventh-largest economy ten years ago, while the UK was the fifth-largest. Based on data on GDP provided by the International Monetary Fund. India surpass the UK in dollar terms annually this year, only behind the US, China, Japan, and Germany. In the final three months of 2021, India surpassed the UK to become the fifth-largest economy.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook database shows India overtaking the U.K. in dollar terms on an annual basis this year with a GDP of $3.53 trillion compared to the U.K.’s $3.38 trillion.
UK’s Downfall
According to adjusted figures and the dollar exchange rate on the last day of the relevant quarter, the Indian economy was worth $854.7 billion in nominal cash terms in the three months ending in March. The United Kingdom was $816 billion on the same basis. a country with the highest inflation rate in four decades and growing recession risk, which the Bank of England predicts might persist well into 2024.
According to reports, the UK's ranking decline is the result of the nation's rising cost of living. For the first time since 1982, the nation saw double-digit consumer price inflation last month. With the pound losing 8% versus the rupee this year, sterling has underperformed the dollar relative to the Indian currency. In the second quarter, UK GDP increased by just 1% in real terms; after accounting for inflation, it decreased by 0.1%.
India Surpassed the UK
Indian equities have recently had a global-beating recovery, moving their weighting into second place in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, only behind China's.
official figures revealed that India's gross domestic product (GDP) increased 13.5% in the June 2022 quarter (Q1FY23), as opposed to the 20.1% growth recorded in the first quarter of 2021–2022. According to an official statement, "Real GDP or gross domestic product (GDP) is anticipated to hit a level of Rs 36.85 lakh crore in Q1 2022-23, as against Rs 32.46 lakh crore in Q1 2021-22, indicating a rise of 13.5 percent as opposed to 20.1 percent in Q1 2021-22."According to National Statistical Office (NSO) figures, the country's gross value added (GVA), which is GDP less net product taxes and shows supply growth, increased by 12.7% between April and June 2022.
Reduced corporate taxes, the production-linked incentive (PLI) program, and India as a potential supply chain beneficiary all helped to stimulate and maintain domestic demand, particularly for investments.
Future Ahead
India's GDP grew by 13.5% in the first quarter of FY23. India's GDP is probably going to develop the quickest in the current fiscal year at this rate. Nirmala Sitharaman, the Union Finance Minister, has disclosed that India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will continue to grow at 7.4% in FY 2022–23 and in FY24 as well.
However, economists worry that the prospect of a global recession and rising interest rates might stifle growth in the ensuing quarters.
A variable monsoon is also expected to have an impact on rural demand and agricultural growth. Economists are also said to be concerned about the manufacturing sector's decreasing growth rate of 4.8% and the fact that imports are outpacing exports.
India is expected to benefit in the coming days as China's aspirations for fresh investments slow down.
Challenges to Overcome
Despite its great economic progress, the country nonetheless has its share of obstacles. According to the World Bank, access to development and new opportunities has been unequal and varies by area.
Furthermore, India is home to 25% of the world's poor. According to the UN, just 39% of its rural populations have access to sanitary facilities, and nearly half of the population still defecates in the open.
Although India overtook the UK there is a disparity in per capita income between the two countries caused by the size of India's population India has 1.3 billion inhabitants, which is three times the combined populations of the UK, France, Italy, and Brazil, vs the UK which has a population of 068 bn. Thus, our per capita GDP was $2,500 as opposed to $47,000. We still have much to go.
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