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Oil Prices Steady Near Key Levels as Trump Signals Iran Deal — What’s Next for Crude?

Writer
Nidhi Thakur
timer
February 24, 2026
Oil Prices Steady Near Key Levels as Trump Signals Iran Deal — What’s Next for Crude?blog thumbnail

Oil Prices Steady Near Key Levels as Trump Signals Iran Deal: What’s Next for Crude?

Global oil markets are once again in focus. Oil prices steady near key levels as former US President Donald Trump indicated he prefers a nuclear deal with Iran, even while warning of consequences if talks fail.

At present, West Texas Intermediate is hovering near $66 per barrel, while Brent crude is holding below $72.

For investors, traders, and policymakers, this is not just another commodity headline. It could shape inflation trends, currency movement, and sectoral performance in India.

TL;DR

  • Crude prices are range bound near key resistance levels
  • US Iran negotiations are the biggest short term trigger
  • Any Hormuz disruption could sharply spike oil
  • Indian markets, especially OMCs and airlines, remain sensitive
  • Volatility is likely to stay elevated in the near term

What Is Happening in the Oil Market Right Now?

Oil prices have stabilised after weeks of geopolitical tension. Trump reiterated his preference for a nuclear agreement with Iran ahead of fresh talks, but also warned it would be a very bad outcome if no deal is reached.

Currently:

  • WTI crude near $66 per barrel
  • Brent crude below $72 per barrel
  • Markets pricing in diplomatic uncertainty

The energy market is balancing two opposing forces.

Bearish factors

  • Possible easing of sanctions on Iran
  • Expectations of global supply surplus
  • Profit booking after recent rally

Bullish factors

  • Middle East military build up
  • Risk to Strait of Hormuz shipments
  • Persistent geopolitical premium

This tug of war is why crude is stuck near key levels.

Why the US Iran Talks Matter So Much

Supply Risk Is the Core Issue

Iran is a major oil producer. Any shift in sanctions can quickly change global supply.

  • If talks succeed, more Iranian oil may enter the market
  • If talks fail, risk premium could spike sharply

Geopolitical tensions have already kept crude highly volatile this year.

Strait of Hormuz Is the Real Flashpoint

The biggest market fear is disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters:

  • One of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes
  • Massive crude and LNG flows pass daily
  • Even temporary disruption can trigger price spikes

Recent Iranian military drills in the region have already pushed tanker rates higher, showing how sensitive the market is.

Key Price Levels Traders Are Watching

Right now crude is in a technically important zone.

WTI crude

  • Support zone: $62 to $64
  • Immediate resistance: $66 to $68
  • Breakout zone: Above $70

Brent crude

  • Support zone: $68 to $70
  • Immediate resistance: $72
  • Bullish trigger: Above $75

Until a clear geopolitical outcome emerges, crude may remain range bound but volatile.

Impact on Indian Markets

India imports more than 80 percent of its crude oil needs, which makes oil prices extremely important for the economy.

If Oil Rises Sharply

Negative impact on:

  • Oil marketing companies margins
  • Aviation stocks
  • Paint and chemical companies
  • India’s current account deficit
  • Inflation and RBI policy flexibility

Higher crude typically weakens the rupee and increases imported inflation.

If Oil Falls

Positive impact on:

  • OMC profitability
  • Airline earnings
  • FMCG and paint margins
  • India’s fiscal math
  • Consumer inflation outlook

This is why Indian equity markets closely track global crude moves.

Sectoral Winners and Losers in India

Likely Beneficiaries if crude cools

  • Aviation companies
  • Paint manufacturers
  • Tyre companies
  • Logistics players

Likely under pressure if crude spikes

  • Oil marketing companies in short term
  • Aviation sector
  • High energy intensive industries

For investors, tracking crude is no longer optional. It is a core macro variable.

What Should Investors Watch Next

1. Outcome of US Iran nuclear talks

This is the biggest immediate trigger. Any breakthrough could push oil lower, while a breakdown could trigger a sharp rally.

2. Movement in tanker rates

Rising shipping costs often signal tightening supply fears before prices react.

3. US inventory data

Weekly crude inventory numbers remain a key sentiment driver.

4. OPEC plus commentary

Production guidance from major producers can quickly shift the supply outlook.

Is This a Trading Opportunity?

For short term traders, crude is entering a headline driven phase.

Bull case

  • Escalation in Middle East
  • Hormuz disruption fears
  • Inventory drawdowns

Bear case

  • Successful US Iran deal
  • Global demand slowdown
  • Strong US dollar

This suggests range trading with sudden breakout risk. Long term investors should avoid knee jerk reactions and meaningfully track macro trends and sectoral impact.

How Swastika Investmart Helps Investors Navigate Volatility

In volatile macro environments like this, having the right research support matters.

Swastika Investmart stands out with:

  • SEBI registered research framework
  • Strong fundamental and technical tools
  • Dedicated customer support
  • Tech enabled investing platform
  • Focus on investor education

Whether you are tracking crude linked sectors or broader market opportunities, informed decision making is critical.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. Why are oil prices steady right now
Oil prices are balancing between geopolitical risk in the Middle East and hopes of a US Iran nuclear deal, keeping them range bound.

Q2. What happens to crude if the US and Iran reach a deal
A successful deal could increase Iranian oil supply and put downward pressure on global crude prices.

Q3. Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for oil markets
It is one of the world’s busiest oil shipping routes. Any disruption can significantly affect global supply and prices.

Q4. How do crude oil prices affect Indian stock markets
Higher crude raises inflation and import costs, hurting many sectors, while lower crude generally supports market sentiment.

Q5. Is this a good time to invest in oil linked stocks
Investors should remain cautious and track geopolitical developments closely, as volatility is likely to remain high.

Conclusion

Oil prices steady near key levels reflect a market caught between diplomacy and disruption risk. The next big move in crude will largely depend on how US Iran negotiations unfold and whether supply fears intensify.

For Indian investors, crude remains a critical macro variable influencing inflation, currency movement, and sectoral profitability. Staying informed and disciplined is essential in such uncertain times.

If you want research backed insights and a reliable investing platform, Swastika Investmart can help you navigate volatile markets with confidence.

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